Kasuwannin pellet na duniya sun karu sosai a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, galibi saboda bukatar bangaren masana'antu. Yayin da kasuwannin dumama pellet ke da yawan buƙatun duniya, wannan bayyani zai mai da hankali kan ɓangaren pellet ɗin masana'antu.

Kasuwannin dumama na Pellet sun fuskanci ƙalubale a cikin 'yan shekarun nan ta hanyar ƙarancin farashin man dumama mai (farashin mai da iskar gas) da zafi fiye da matsakaicin lokacin sanyi a Arewacin Amurka da Turai. FutureMetrics yana tsammanin haɗuwar hauhawar farashin mai da manufofin kashe carbon zai dawo da haɓaka buƙatu zuwa yanayin a cikin 2020s.

A cikin shekaru da yawa da suka gabata, sashin pellet ɗin masana'antu ya kai girman sashin dumama pellet, kuma ana sa ran zai ƙara girma cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.
Kasuwar pellet na masana'antu ana tafiyar da ita ta hanyar rage fitar da iskar carbon da manufofin samar da sabuntawa. Pellets na masana'antu ƙananan man fetur ne mai sabunta carbon wanda ke maye gurbin kwal a cikin manyan tashoshin wutar lantarki.

Ana iya maye gurbin pellets da gawayi ta hanyoyi biyu, ko dai cikakken jujjuyawa ko harbi tare. Don cikakkiyar juzu'i, ana jujjuya gaba ɗaya naúrar a tashar kwal daga amfani da kwal zuwa amfani da pellet ɗin itace. Wannan yana buƙatar gyare-gyare ga sarrafa mai, tsarin ciyarwa, da masu ƙonewa. Haɗa harbe-harbe shine konewar pellet ɗin itace tare da kwal. A ƙananan rabon harbe-harbe, ana buƙatar ƙaramar gyare-gyare zuwa wuraren da aka niƙa. A gaskiya ma, a ƙananan haɗuwa (a ƙarƙashin kusan kashi bakwai) na pellets na itace, kusan ba a buƙatar gyara.

Ana sa ran buƙatu a cikin Burtaniya da EU za su tashi zuwa 2020. Koyaya, ana sa ran babban ci gaba a Japan da Koriya ta Kudu a cikin 2020s. Muna kuma sa ran Kanada da Amurka za su sami wasu masana'antar wutar lantarki ta hanyar amfani da pellet na masana'antu nan da 2025.

Bukatar Pellet

Sabbin manyan ayyukan haɗin gwiwa da jujjuyawa masu amfani a cikin Japan, EU da UK, da Koriya ta Kudu, da kuma yawancin ayyukan masana'antar samar da wutar lantarki masu zaman kansu a Japan, ana hasashen za su ƙara kusan tan miliyan 24 a kowace shekara zuwa buƙatun yanzu nan da 2025. Ana sa ran ci gaban ya fito ne daga Japan, da Koriya ta Kudu.

FutureMetrics yana kiyaye cikakkun bayanai na ƙayyadaddun ayyuka akan duk ayyukan da ake sa ran za su yi amfani da pellet ɗin itace. Yawancin samar da pellets don shirin sabon buƙatu a cikin EU da Burtaniya an riga an shirya su tare da manyan masu samarwa. Duk da haka, kasuwannin Jafananci da S. Koriya ta Kudu suna ba da dama ga sabon ƙarfin da yake, a mafi yawan lokuta, ba a cikin bututun ba har zuwa yau.

Turai da Ingila

Ci gaban farko (2010 zuwa yanzu) a cikin masana'antar pellet na itace ya fito ne daga yammacin Turai da Burtaniya Duk da haka, ci gaba a Turai yana raguwa kuma ana sa ran zai haɓaka a farkon 2020s. Ragowar ci gaban buƙatun pellet na masana'antu na Turai zai fito ne daga ayyukan a cikin Netherlands da Burtaniya

Bukatar kayan aikin Dutch ɗin har yanzu ba shi da tabbas, saboda masana'antar kwal sun jinkirta yanke shawarar saka hannun jari na ƙarshe game da gyare-gyaren harbe-harbe har sai an ba su tabbacin cewa tsire-tsire na kwal za su iya ci gaba da aiki. Yawancin manazarta, gami da FutureMetrics, suna tsammanin za a warware waɗannan batutuwan kuma da alama buƙatar Dutch za ta yi girma da aƙalla tan miliyan 2.5 a kowace shekara a cikin shekaru uku zuwa huɗu masu zuwa. Mai yiyuwa ne bukatar kasar Holland ta karu zuwa tan miliyan 3.5 a kowace shekara idan dukkanin tashoshin kwal guda hudu da aka baiwa tallafin sun ci gaba da shirinsu.

Ayyuka biyu na Burtaniya, EPH's 400MW Canjin tashar wutar lantarki ta Lynemouth da MGT's Teeside greenfield CHP shuka, a halin yanzu ko dai suna kan aiwatarwa ko kuma ana kan gini. Drax kwanan nan ya sanar da cewa zai canza raka'a ta huɗu don aiki akan pellets. Sa'o'i nawa wannan rukunin zai gudana a cikin shekara ba a sani ba a wannan lokacin. Koyaya, ganin cewa an yanke shawarar saka hannun jari, FutureMetrics ta kiyasta cewa rukunin 4 zai cinye ƙarin ton 900,000 a kowace shekara. Kowace juzu'in da aka canza a tashar Drax na iya cinye kusan tan miliyan 2.5 a kowace shekara idan suna aiki da cikakken ƙarfi duk shekara. FutureMetrics yana aiwatar da sabbin buƙatu mai yuwuwa a cikin Turai da Ingila akan tan miliyan 6.0 a kowace shekara.

Japan

Bukatar biomass a Japan ana yin ta ne ta hanyar sassa uku na manufofin: Tsarin tallafi na Ciyarwa a Tariff (FiT) don sabuntawar makamashi, ƙa'idodin ingancin shukar kwal, da maƙasudin fitar da iskar carbon.

FiT yana ba masu kera wutar lantarki masu zaman kansu (IPPs) farashin da aka saita don sabunta makamashi a cikin tsawaita kwantiragin - shekaru 20 don makamashin biomass. A halin yanzu, a ƙarƙashin FiT, wutar lantarki da aka samar daga "itace na yau da kullum," wanda ya hada da pellets, da aka shigo da katako, da kuma ƙwayar dabino (PKS), yana karɓar tallafi na 21 ¥ / kWh, ƙasa daga 24 ¥ / kWh kafin Satumba 30, 2017. Duk da haka, yawancin IPPs na biomass da suka karbi FiT mafi girma suna kulle a cikin wannan adadin (kimanin $ 0.214 / kWh a farashin musayar yanzu).

Ma'aikatar Tattalin Arziki na Kasuwanci da Masana'antu ta Japan (METI) ta samar da abin da ake kira "Mafi kyawun Makamashi" don 2030. A cikin wannan shirin, wutar lantarki ta biomass tana da kashi 4.1 cikin 100 na yawan wutar lantarki na Japan a 2030. Wannan yayi daidai da fiye da miliyan 26. metric tonnes na pellets (idan duk kwayoyin halittun katako ne).

A cikin 2016, METI ta fitar da takarda da ke kwatanta mafi kyawun fasahar da ake samu (BAT) ingantattun ka'idoji don tsire-tsire masu zafi. Takardar tana haɓaka mafi ƙarancin ƙa'idodin inganci don masu samar da wutar lantarki. Tun daga 2016, kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na samar da kwal na Japan ya fito ne daga tsire-tsire waɗanda suka dace da ma'aunin ingancin BAT. Hanya ɗaya don biyan sabuwar ƙa'idar aiki ita ce haɗa pellet ɗin wuta.

Ana ƙididdige ingancin shuka ta hanyar rarraba makamashi ta hanyar shigar da makamashi. Don haka, alal misali, idan tashar wutar lantarki ta yi amfani da MWh 100 na shigarwar makamashi don samar da MWh 35, wannan tashar tana aiki da inganci da kashi 35 cikin ɗari.

METI ta ba da izinin shigar da makamashi daga haɗin gwiwar biomass don cirewa daga shigarwar. Idan irin wannan shukar da aka kwatanta a sama ta haɗa wuta da 15 MWh na pellets na itace, ingancin shuka a ƙarƙashin sabon lissafin zai zama 35 MWh / (100 MWh – 15 MWh) = 41.2 bisa ɗari, wanda ya ke sama da daidaitattun daidaitattun daidaito. FutureMetrics ya ƙididdige adadin pellet ɗin itace waɗanda masana'antar wutar lantarki ta Japan za su buƙaci don kawo ƙananan shuke-shuken aiki don dacewa a cikin rahoton da FutureMetrics na FutureMetrics ya fitar kwanan nan. Rahoton ya ƙunshi cikakkun bayanai game da buƙatun buƙatun itace, harsashi na dabino, da guntuwar itace a Japan da manufofin da ke haifar da wannan buƙatar.

Hasashen FutureMetrics game da bukatar pellet ta ƙananan masu samar da wutar lantarki (IPPs) ya kai tan miliyan 4.7 a kowace shekara nan da 2025. Wannan ya dogara ne akan nazarin kusan IPPs 140 waɗanda aka yi dalla-dalla a cikin Jafananci Biomass Outlook.

Jimlar yuwuwar bukatu a Japan daga masana'antar wutar lantarki da daga IPPs na iya wuce tan miliyan 12 a kowace shekara nan da 2025.

Takaitawa

Akwai babban matakin amincewa a kusa da ci gaba da ci gaban kasuwannin pellet na masana'antu na Turai. Bukatar Jafananci, da zarar ayyukan IPP sun tashi kuma suna gudana kuma manyan kayan aiki sun sami fa'idodin FiT, ya kamata su kasance masu karko kuma yana iya girma kamar yadda aka yi hasashe. Bukatar gaba a Koriya ta Kudu ya fi wuya a ƙididdigewa saboda rashin tabbas a farashin RECs. Gabaɗaya, FutureMetrics ya ƙiyasta yuwuwar sabon buƙatun pellet na masana'antu ta hanyar 2025 ya haura tan miliyan 26 a kowace shekara.